Ahead/Trailing/Even Tidbits

Was doing a little research for a project and went off on a tangent to see how teams in the EPL had performed in different game states over the past 5 years in terms of expected goals (takes into account distance from goal, angle, and header or footer). Here are some of the more interesting factoids (14-15 data not updated through last 2 games):

Best teams with a lead

Chelsea 14-15, Liverpool 12-13, Chelsea 10-11, City 12-13, City 11-12, Saints 14-15

This years Saints team is the only non big 5 team until Everton 12-13 at 14th then Fulham at 16th. Next is last years Saints at 28th.

Best teams playing from behind

Chelsea 13-14, City 11-12, City 13-14, United 12-13, Chelsea 12-13, Chelsea 10-11, Chelsea 14-15, Chelsea 11-12

Chelsea takes 5 of the top 9 spots in best teams playing from behind. Everton 12-13 is the first no-big 5 team at 12th.

Teams that improve the most when going behind

Wolves 11-12

Stoke 14-15

Stoke 11-12

Chelsea 13-14

West Brom 14-15

A bizarre assortment of teams here, with Mourinho’s Chelsea, two Stoke sides and Wolves, who got 25 points in 11-12. Chelsea trailing in 13-14 (and this year) are essentially unstoppable. They trailed for just shy of 300 minutes but racked up 8.5 xG to only 1.8 xGA. Wolves became basically a league-average side when they fell behind (20.5 xG-23.6 xGA) but were horrendous with the game even (20 xG-35 xGA) while giving up shots at a record pace (nearly 19 per game).

Teams that get worse when they go behind

Arsenal 13-14

Arsenal 14-15

Sunderland 14-15

Arsenal 12-13

Manchester United 11-12

This is kind of a strange one to me. Arsenal basically play as a league-average side when they have gone behind the past 3 years, after being totally fine the 2 before that. The several hammerings they seem to get yearly certainly show up here. See how their offensive and defensive ranks relative to the EPL change when they go behind:

This is something I want to look at more later, and break down to see if they are only falling behind against good teams or something strange.


Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s