With all the data in the Exp/S and G/S graph at different game states looks like this:
And the Shots/90 at different game states looks like this:
Giving us ExpG/90 and G/90 rates at the different game states that look like this:
So we know that generally teams score more efficiently than expected when ahead and less efficiently when behind.
Let’s look and see how these metrics differ across the top 5 leagues, nothing new here just a couple of comparisons.
First, shot rate at different game states:
The most interesting thing to me is the difference between England and Germany at the 0 and +1 states. In England teams shoot way more than other leagues at even states and then follow the general pattern of shooting slightly less when they go up. In Germany, teams start firing much more when they go 1 up. This could be that Bayern always scores the first goal and their style of play is making it look like a league-wide effect. I will look into this later, but at first glance something interesting is going on. I am almost certain that the low rate of shots at -3 in the Bundesliga is due to most of those situations coming against Bayern. Serie A sees the steepest rise in shots when a team goes down 1 making me think that is likely the place where managers play for a draw more often.
Now how shooting % changes at different game states (G/S rate is what is being graphed below)
The obvious difference here is a little more interesting to me. We know from previous work how much more efficient German teams are in converting their chances, what is interesting is this difference is mostly coming from how efficient teams are in an even state. At the other states most leagues are similar and smushed together (except for La Liga’s efficiency high up which is a Barca/Real Madrid effect almost surely). This isn’t because the Bundesliga is taking much higher quality shots (EPL takes better shots at even state, La Liga and Ligue 1 similar shots). Anyone with a good idea or explanation for this let me know. I will be looking through the team data in different leagues to see if anything pops out.
The last graph is simply a ratio of G/S to ExpG/S. The strange situation of Italian teams up 3 pops its head again here and the Germans are well ahead of the pack at the +1 game state, while they weren’t in G/S which shows that German teams are not getting easier shots, but simply scoring more shots from similar distance, angle and body part .